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Rodney Dickens says analysis doesn’t support the RBNZ embarking on a...
Graeme WheelerBy Rodney Dickens*Annual CPI inflation fell to 1% in the September quarter, which puts it at the bottom of the 1-3% inflation target range; noting Governor Wheeler has stated he is...
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Rodney Dickens argues the responses of governments and central banks to the...
Image sourced from Shutterstock.comBy Rodney Dickens*The financial crisis is dead.Long live the financial crisis.First there was the share market crisis in the early 2000s that the Fed responded to...
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Rodney Dickens looks at the RBNZ's housing experiments, its exchange rate...
Image sourced from Shutterstock.comBy Rodney Dickens*It is normal for Reserve Bank governors to try new experiments, but more often than not they turn out to be bad ideas (e.g. Governor Don Brash's...
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Rodney Dickens looks at whether low CPI inflation justifies OCR cuts?
By Rodney Dickens*Calls for OCR cuts are based on the view CPI inflation, having fallen well below the bottom of Governor Wheeler's 1-3% medium-term target range (adjacent chart), will remain too low...
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Rodney Dickens says the latest boom in Auckland house prices is not over but...
By Rodney Dickens*Auckland house prices have in the past experienced Biblical style behaviour (i.e. feasts followed by famines, but also famines followed by feasts). It is too early to warn about the...
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Rodney Dickens thinks respondents are ticking the negative boxes in the ANZ...
By Rodney Dickens*At face value the large fall in many components of the ANZ business survey and especially the falls in business confidence and exporters' expectations provide Governor Wheeler with...
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It is not the downside threats that worry Rodney Dickens but the upside house...
By Rodney Dickens*Bad things inevitably happen when the Reserve Bank governor has a distorted view of house price prospects, as Governor Wheeler currently has.This is particularly the case in terms of...
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Rodney Dickens says we've reached a critical stage in the economic cycle with...
By Rodney Dickens*rodney-dickens-2.gifThis Raving looks at two migration issues: (1) the role immigration is and can play in easing the burden of an aging population on taxpayers; and (2) the mystery...
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Rodney Dickens says the risk isn't that economic & employment growth will...
Image sourced from Shutterstock.comBy Rodney Dickens*rodney-dickens-2.gifAt times the economic forecasters say things that are dubious at best, which sets off the bullshit meter in my head.Normally I...
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Rodney Dickens says forget dairy and housing, consumer spending is the...
Image sourced from Shutterstock.comBy Rodney Dickens*rodney-dickens-2.gifConsumer spending is the meat-n-veg of economic growth but doesn't get the attention it deserves because of the cameo...
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Rodney Dickens says it's interest rate policy that drives house prices and...
By Rodney Dickens*rodney-dickens-3.jpgHouse prices, especially in Auckland, are extremely high relative to incomes, but this doesn't mean there is imminent or necessarily large downside risk for house...
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Economist Rodney Dickens thinks recent volatility in reported house prices...
By Rodney Dickens*rodney-dickens-3.jpgMuch that has been written about the behaviour of Auckland house prices since the property tax and LVR changes last year is nonsense.Auckland house prices were...
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Economist Rodney Dickens says the boost from the OCR cut to the labour market...
By Rodney Dickens*Two of the main factors used to justify the five OCR cuts Governor Wheeler has delivered over the last year will not have the impact on the economy assumed by the Reserve Bank and the...
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Economist Rodney Dickens says the currency market is smarter than the Reserve...
By Rodney Dickens*Governor Wheeler has spent almost the last two years trying to talk the exchange rate down.His comments and actions may have played a part in it falling for a period.However, since...
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Economist Rodney Dickens accuses the RBNZ policy makers being out of touch...
By Rodney Dickens*This morning the Reserve Bank released a brief "economic update" that laid the groundwork for an OCR cut on 11 August.In that context, the critical comment in the statement was: "At...
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Rodney Dickens puts the boot into economic forecasters for getting it so...
By Rodney Dickens*What happened to those predictions of weak economic growth?!The Westpac and ASB economists were at the forefront of calls for lots of OCR cuts over the last year.Partly supporting...
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Rodney Dickens claims the pressures building in our labour markets bring a...
By Rodney Dickens*Employment growth has turned out to be dramatically stronger than predicted by my old employer, the Reserve Bank and the economic forecasters more generally; and the same will happen...
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Rodney Dickens suggests how you should assess the numerous surveys and market...
By Rodney Dickens*One of the useful things the bank economists do is report a range of indicators including business surveys, consumer surveys, labour market-related indicators, commodity prices...
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Rodney Dickens sees interest rates having to be increased to a level that...
By Rodney Dickens*NZ is doomed to experiencing major housing cycles in part because of the link between interest rates and migration and the tendency for the Reserve Bank to conduct misguided monetary...
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Rodney Dickens thinks underfunding of Statistics NZ is bringing a higher...
By Rodney Dickens*Anyone vaguely familiar with how much of the official economic data are derived will have a healthy scepticism of the accuracy of the official numbers.Too often the bank economists...
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