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Opinion: The RBNZ shouldn’t be panicked into early OCR hikes unless it wants...
By Rodney Dickens A number of the bank economists are calling for an early start to OCR hikes and for significant hikes over the next couple of years. Calls for a hike before the 26 November general...
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Opinion: Rodney Dickens finds economists consistently over-estimated growth,...
By Rodney DickensTo properly review the accuracy of the consensus economic forecasts we need to look at what the economic forecasters were predicting versus what happen over the forecast period.NZIER...
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Opinion: Rodney Dickens offers an alternative Monetary Policy Statement
By Rodney Dickens [This analysis continues Rodney Dickens' series on what he sees is wrong with the current policy approach of the RBNZ. For links to the previous analysis, see here and here.]1. Policy...
View ArticleOpinion: Rodney Dickens says the new RBNZ Governor shouldn't trust his...
By Rodney DickensAlan Bollard’s decision to step down as governor in September has opened the doors for debate about how monetary policy is operated and speculation over who will be the next governor....
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Rodney Dickens thinks the risk of a hard landing in China is real this year....
By Rodney DickensThe long, long signalled Chinese housing collapse may finally be underway.Some people have been barking up this tree so long they have got tired and stopped barking.The earliest record...
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Rodney Dickens says there is a silent revolution occurring in grassroots New...
By Rodney DickensNegative shocks have been the order of the day for too long, be it the flare-ups of the international financial crisis or the devastating Canterbury earthquakes.Jesting, we are...
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Rodney Dickens warns of the bear trap awaiting unwary home buyers who gear to...
By Rodney Dickens*Since early-2009 low mortgage interest rates have disguised the extent to which New Zealand has a housing affordability problem.Interest rates should remain low while the financial...
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Rodney Dickens makes a public plea to Governor Wheeler to keep the OCR more...
"I hope Graeme Wheeler has done his homework so he avoids repeating the mistakes made by his predecessors"By Rodney Dickens*Since the first governor was appointed on 1 January 1934 the Reserve Bank has...
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Rodney Dickens says history has taught that cutting interest rates in...
By Rodney Dickens*Governor Wheeler has opened Pandora’s Box and some weird stuff came out.The analysis in the March MPS was just what you would expect from the stereotypical economist.On the one hand...
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Rodney Dickens says the Reserve Bank has opened Pandora’s Box and nothing...
By Rodney Dickens*Between 2001 and 2004 the average mortgage interest rate charged by the major banks averaged 7.3% compared to an average of 8.9% between 1992 and 2000 (see the top left chart below...
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Rodney Dickens reveals how rapidly the importance of China to our exporters...
By Rodney Dickens*It has become increasingly clear that something other than normal global factors are driving NZ export prices.The adjacent chart compares the ANZ NZ export price index and The...
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Rodney Dickens unpacks the detail within the fast-rising migrant arrival...
By Rodney Dickens*Net migration measures the inflow of permanent and long-term immigrants less the outflow of people leaving the country on a permanent or longterm basis.In the last year there has been...
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Rodney Dickens unpicks the background behind the recent LVR restrictions and...
Rodney Dickens says its hard to find a substantially persuasive argument for the LVR restrictions.By Rodney Dickens*The chart below is sourced from the Reserve Bank (RB) and shows household debt as a %...
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Rodney Dickens explores the impact the dairying 'revolution' is having on New...
By Rodney Dickens*There is nothing new about the current high dairy export prices in that the current levels are similar to earlier peak levels in 2007/08 and 2010/11.The left chart below shows the ANZ...
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Rodney Dickens likes what he has seen of the new community focus for...
By Rodney Dickens*Rather than largely going it alone, as was the case in the past, the government is now actively encouraging community groups/trusts to get involved in the provision of housing for the...
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Rodney Dickens says the CPI has two major parts and both can be troublemakers
By Rodney Dickens*"By increasing the OCR as needed to keep future average inflation near the 2 percent target mid-point, the Bank is seeking to ensure that the economic expansion can be...
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Rodney Dickens shows why targeting 4% unemployment is misguided and would...
Image sourced from Shutterstock.comBy Rodney Dickens*Recent New Zealand experience tells us why targeting a 4% unemployment rate is misguided, which points to such a target being motivated by...
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Rodney Dickens says if policy was less skill-qualification-oriented and more...
By Rodney Dickens*Auckland is a major winner from the government's skilled-based immigration policies, Wellington and Canterbury benefit to a moderate extent, while Canterbury benefits form the...
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Landlords are probably not going to get rent increases to match rising...
You can't always get what you want ...By Rodney Dickens*Property Investors Federation executive officer Andrew King has been advising landlords to put up rents to try and offset the negative impact of...
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Rodney Dickens says because of new technologies being used to extract oil and...
Image sourced from Shutterstock.comBy Rodney Dickens*A multi-front revolution is underway in the international energy market that should deliver much cheaper energy prices including petrol pump prices...
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